Monday, March 1, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Monday-
Sunny. High: 52-56



Monday Night-
Clear. Low: 30-34



Tuesday-
Sunny. High: 54-58



Tuesday Night-
Clear. Low: 30-34



Wednesday-
Sunny. High: 60-64


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Discussion: 

Columbia will experience a nice warming trend as we start heading into the week. Monday has a high of mid-to-upper 50’s as clear skies help us warm up. Heading into Monday night temperatures will start to cool off as we remain clear with winds coming out of the northeast bringing cooler air. Tuesday will remain warm as the high reaches mid-to-upper 50’s as the wind shifts coming out of the southwest. Tuesday night will be similar to Monday night as we remain clear with temperatures in the lower-to-mid 30’s. Wednesday will be another nice and sunny day as temperatures reach into the lower-to-mid 60’s.


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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Pauley
Issued: 11:00 AM CST 01 March 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

For this forecast period, the 06z NAM model was used due to its handling of current temperatures and model timing verified from the previous model runs. The NAM model guidance paired with the SREF Plumes showed high confidence in temperatures and moisture return for the upcoming forecast period. 

Currently, an upper level ridge is beginning to make its way from the northwest over much of the Great Plains and is starting to build west. This ridge will force the current upper level trough easterly forcing any moisture to exit east along with it. The current low-level winds are coming from the south, but will begin to shift southeasterly as we head into late Monday morning. These southeasterly flowing winds will bring with it a warming temperature trend paired with mostly sunny skies. The majority of the clouds that will be seen overhead throughout Monday will be cirrus clouds which won’t hinder the warming temperatures. Monday night, the upper level ridge moving from the west will encompass much of the midwest as winds shift from southeasterly to southwesterly. We remain dry thanks to this high pressure system that originated from southwestern Canada. Heading into Tuesday morning, a small upper level trough begins to push easterly from Texas making its way to central Arkansas. This low pressure system will stay well to our south taking with it any possibility for rain and moisture Tuesday. The lower level winds stay south easterly and mostly sunny skies lead to a continuous warming trend to where we top out into the upper 50s for Tuesday afternoon. 


Overnight Tuesday, the lower level winds begin to shift from the west and a lack of clouds begin to lower our temperatures down to the lower 30s. Due to the warming of the surface during most of the day on Tuesday, our surface temperatures will aid in keeping us warmer allowing for us to stay similar in our overnight lows to Monday nights. Wednesday, winds shift from westerly to north westerly. Thanks to the slow moving upper level ridge currently building in from our west, we will remain dry and skies will be mostly sunny. These northwesterly flowing winds will keep our temperatures from warming up into the 60’s on Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s for the high on Wednesday. 


The next forecasters main area of focus should be on the upper level trough that begins to form out to our west on Thursday morning. Currently, model guidance suggested a southeasterly track towards Arkansas, but any change north could bring the possibility of rain later on this week.   


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