Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Rain ending in the early evening. Low: 44-48
Wednesday - Cloudy and breezy. High: 54-58
Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain possible after midnight. Low: 44-48
Thursday - Cloudy. On-and-off showers possible throughout the day. High: 52-56
Friday - Partly sunny. High: 60-64
This evening you may run into some rain on your way home from work, but thankfully these showers are expected to end by the early evening. Wednesday will stay dry, but cloudy skies will stay with us on-and-off throughout the remainder of the week and daytime temperatures will remain in the comfortable 50s to low 60s. Wednesday night, our chances for rain will return, and stay with us throughout the day on Thursday. If you are planning on going out, make sure to bring your umbrella and maybe even some rain boots. Finally, the clouds will begin to clear out a bit on Friday and the sun will return to warm up our temperatures into the low 60s.
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This forecast was assembled using the 12Z run of the GFS, SREF and GEFS plumes for temperatures, and GFS soundings for rain potential and timing. The GFS was chosen due to how well it has handled both initial conditions and the timing and intensity of incoming rain events.
The 250-mb plot of heights, winds and divergence shows the large amount of divergence passing over Mid-Missouri due to the occluded low pressure system over central Kansas. By Wednesday, the low will have moved out of the region to the northeast, and Missouri falls under the influence of a large jet streak. Thursday sees more large amounts of divergence, which will help fuel the next opportunity for rain in central Missouri. This jet streak influence remains until the end of the forecast period.
500-mb plots of heights and vorticity depict the occluded low as it moves over northern Missouri. As it passes, it brings the potential for severe storms for the northeastern portion of Missouri. After the low passes, enough vorticity is left to retain cloudy conditions, but a lack of moisture in lower levels should prevent rain from occurring. By 06Z Thursday, the passage of a shortwave trough brings more potential for rain, and the potential stays there for the remainder of the day. As of 09Z Friday, Missouri falls under the influence of a shortwave ridge, bringing calmer conditions and a break from the on and off rain pattern.
The 700-mb plot of heights and relative humidity explain why Missouri will see so many fluctuations in opportunities for rain. The occluded low takes the classic comma cloud shape, which brings enough moisture for central Missouri to receive rain until the early evening around 00Z Wednesday. Enough available moisture for rain stays out of the area until 06Z Thursday, where moisture will fluctuate throughout the day, causing spotty on and off showers. By Friday, all abundant moisture leave Missouri and calm conditions return. Future forecasters should be aware that more moisture will be moving into the region Friday night, bringing more potential for rain.
At the 850-mb level, plots of heights, winds and temperature depict just why Missouri will see so many moisture fluctuations. The LLJ from the Gulf of Mexico funnels in moisture for Tuesday evening's rain event. The passage of the low cuts off the LLJ around 00Z Wednesday, preventing anymore rain chances for the day. After the low passes, the LLJ returns at 06Z Thursday, funneling in more moisture and causing rainfall to return to central Missouri. By 00Z Friday, winds change to a westerly direction and bring clearer skies and calmer conditions.
Surface plots of MSLP, thickness and winds suggest that another low pressure system will be the cause for Thursday's rain chances. After the passage of this system, calmer conditions return, as suggested by very widely spaced isobars. By Friday afternoon, WAA takes over, suggesting warmer temperatures than previously seen throughout the week.
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