Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday - Sunny. High: 64-68
Thursday Night - Clear with increasing clouds throughout the night.
Friday - Partly cloudy. High: 52-56
Friday Night - Cloudy. Low: 32-36
Saturday - Mixture of sun and clouds. High: 52-56
Pleasant conditions continue to stick around for the Columbia area. Thursday we will see clear skies and temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but it will remain a great day to be outside. Friday will bring clouds to the area as a low pressure system passes to our south, any precipitation that will fall will be southwest of Jefferson City which will be in the form of rain. Saturday morning clouds will start to clear through out the day as that low pressure system moves east.
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GFS diagnostics show the GFS initialized better than the NAM did for both temperatures and identifying the location of the low. Therefore, the GFS was used for the forecast and GEFS was used for temperatures. The focus of this forecast period is the upper level low over the western United States.
At 250mb, the pattern is mainly zonal, with winds out of the west-northwest. An upper level low has developed over Nevada causing a split jet to evolve. The upper level low is expected to progress due east through Utah, Colorado, and Kansas through Friday morning before weakening Friday afternoon into the evening and becoming enveloped by the upper level flow. The divergence associated with this system is expected to stay in eastern Kansas, but Missouri could see mild upper level divergence Friday afternoon into the evening. Saturday, the jet stream reunifies and Missouri falls under north-northwest flow as upper level ridging takes effect.
At 500mb, the upper level low is situated over southern Nevada and tracks northeast into Colorado before moving south through Oklahoma and dissipating over Arkansas in the same time period as mentioned above. Associated with this upper level low is strong vorticity. However, most of the vorticity stays in Kansas. Southwest Missouri will see upper level clouds but no precipitation as the middle layers of the atmosphere are too dry. Over mid-Missouri, a deformation zone is set up which will prevent the advancing clouds and precipitation from entering the area. Following the upper level low on Saturday, upper level ridging begins building and flow is from the northwest.
At 700mb, the upper level low tracks from Arizona and moves northeastward through Utah and parts of Colorado before moving southeastward through Texas and Oklahoma. As mention previously, a deformation zone forms in mid-Missouri as northerly flow meets a low level jet from the south, influenced by the approaching low pressure system. The moisture associated with the system will not enter mid- Missouri, but may be enough for showers further south.
At the surface, throughout Thursday warm air advection will dominate, influencing warmer temperatures. For Friday, cold air advection and northerly flow will bring cooler temperatures and make way for a high pressure system to enter the region, pushing out the remnants of the previous system.
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