Thursday, March 4, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Thursday Night -
Partly cloudy. Low: 34-38


 
Friday - Partly Cloudy. High: 52-56




 Friday Night -
Cloudy. Low: 32-36




Saturday - Clear morning with increasing clouds in the evening. High: 54-58




Sunday -
Mostly Sunny. High: 60-64


==================================================== 
 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

A low pressure system will move through the area causing winds to shift out of the northwest, bringing in some clouds and chillier temperatures starting Friday morning. Lingering moisture will contribute to some low level clouds forming on Saturday. A high pressure system will follow in its wake, drying the atmosphere and causing winds to become southwesterly. This will bring warmer air into the area.Temperatures will gradually rise throughout the weekend, leaving a spring-like Sunday. Overall expect to enjoy a pleasant weekend, as winter's icy grip loosens.

====================================================

 
Forecaster: Lamb, Cochran, Nixon, Travis
Issued: 6:00 PM CST 04 March 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):
 

The GFS was used for this forecast period, since it had superior handling of winds, temperature, and pressures with respect to surface observations, when compared with other models. Additionally, SREF and GEFS were used for temperatures. This forecast period mainly focused on an upper-level low pressure system moving east across the area. Later into the weekend, a high-pressure system associated with a ridge will dominate the forecast.


At 250-mb, a strong low-pressure system from the Central Rockies will start to reach the area around Friday at 15Z. Missouri will reside under the left exit region of the max jet axis to our south resulting in divergence aloft contributing to increasing cloud cover. The system will progress southward, leaving remnants of small circulations seen at the 500-mb level. Relative humidity plots seen at 700 mb support sufficient amounts of moisture brought by the upper-level low. This will result in increasing clouds beginning Friday and continuing Saturday.

 

An upper-level ridge, seen in the height fields at 250, 500, and 700mb, moving in from the western United States infiltrates the area Saturday night, bringing a surface high-pressure system with mild conditions. GFS soundings indicate this will keep our atmosphere dry as the weekend closes. Temperatures are expected to drop off Thursday night with the passage of the low-pressure system. Once the system clears the area, WAA solenoids formed by the 1000-500-mb thickness and MSLP will allow temperatures to steadily increase, leaving an unseasonably warm Sunday. 

 

The next forecast period should draw its attention to the zonal flow left behind by the high-pressure system and the upper-level ridge.


No comments:

Post a Comment