Monday, March 8, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Monday- 
Sunny. High: 66-70



Monday Night- 
Mostly cloudy. Low: 46-50



Tuesday- 
Mostly Sunny, clouds clearing throughout the day. High: 70-74



Tuesday Night- 
Mostly cloudy. Low: 54-58



Wednesday- 
Cloudy with the possibility of rain. High: 66-70


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Discussion: 

Currently, an overhead high pressure system is leading to dry conditions and clear skies. This high pressure system stays over much of the midwest and leads to pretty clear skies today and Tuesday. Thanks to southwesterly flowing winds, our temperatures for the next three days will continue to keep us into the upper 60’s. Heading into Tuesday night, a low pressure system off to our west starts to come into play for central Missouri. Clouds begin to push in from the west. Early morning Wednesday, the probability of rain increases as the low pressure system off to the west of the midwest starts to funnel moisture through much of Mid-Missouri. Temperatures will continue to stay into the upper 60’s though as the winds continue out of the south. These winds will bring warm and moist gulf air into Missouri allowing for off an on Rain throughout most of Wednesday.     

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Pauley
Issued: 10:30 AM CST 08 March 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

For this forecast period, the 06z NAM model was used due to its handling of current moisture and model timing verified from the previous model runs. The NAM model guidance paired with the SREF Plumes showed high confidence in temperatures and moisture return for the upcoming forecast period. Our main concern for the forecast period is the amount of precipitation. 

Currently an upper level ridge continues to dominate most of the western United States. A southwest flow will continue to warm temperatures and bring slightly more moisture to our CWA and will continue for the next several days. As the week progresses towards wednesday a deep upper level trough builds over the western United States helping to increase the southwest upper level flow. This trough will allow for more moisture transport into the midwest with some help from an atmospheric river. An upper level shortwave will push into the midwest Wednesday pushing a cold front with it, allowing for the possibility of rain Wednesday with the elevated moisture content. Upper level flow will run parallel with the frontal passage, which may increase precipitation.

At the surface the high pressure system that provided our nice weather for the week will proceed to push east towards the southeastern United States, as well as a low pressure system pushes eastward out of the Rockies allowing for Southwesterly flow at the lower levels of the atmosphere. As the low pushes eastward, we should expect to see more cloud cover as we approach Wednesday.

The first few days of this week will remain to be warmer than average, but expect rain as we move into Wednesday. Tuesday night humidity will start to come in giving us the possibility to see some rain. Rain chances will increase going into Wednesday as a bulk of moisture will move its way into Missouri. We will still be lacking vertical motion, so we do see rain it will be light showers through out the day. Severe weather has been in discussion later this week, we could possibly see a few rumbles of thunder mainly Tuesday night, but for Tuesday night going into Wednesday nothing should be severe. For rain totals mid-Missouri should see around a trace to .10th of an inch. The next forecasters should be on the lookout for the upper level shortwaves, trough in the western United States, and the location of the cold frontal passage. 


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