Tuesday, March 9, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Tuesday -
 Clearing skies as the day progresses. High: 70-74



Tuesday Night -
Mostly cloudy
Low: 54-58



Wednesday - 
Cloudy. Passing showers and thunderstorms possible. High: 66-70  



Wednesday Night - 
Cloudy. Passing showers and thunderstorms possible. Low: 54-58



Thursday -
 Cloudy with rain, a few thunderstorms possible. High: 42-46


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 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the lower 70’s. Clouds are most likely going to stick around throughout the day keeping us in the lower 70’s, but if we do see some peaks of sun that could help drive our temperatures closer to the mid 70’s. Throughout the day into tonight make sure to hold onto your hats as there will be breezy conditions, possible wind gust up to 30 mph. Moisture is going to start to pick up into the overnight hours. There is a low pressure system that will be pushing southeast into Kansas and Nebraska. This low pressure system will be giving us the chance to see rain and possible thunderstorms. As for Wednesday there will be scattered rain showers mainly for central and northern Missouri. As this low pressure system pushes south, into the overnight hours on Wednesday into Thursday a line of rain will start to form and push its way through mid-Missouri. A cold front will be associated with this low pressure system, as it pushes through temperatures will steadily start to decrease for the high each day. As for now nothing looks to be severe with these storms that are rolling through, just the possibility to hear of some rumbles of thunder. 


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Forecaster: Pauley
Issued: 9:00 AM CST 09 March 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):


For this forecast period, the 06z GFS was one of the primary models used. The 06z GFS was grasping current temperatures better than the 06z NAM. The 06z NAM is providing cooler temperatures then what current temperatures actually are. The 06z GFS is also correlating and handling current moisture and has been verified with previous model runs. 


Currently, at 250-mb heights and winds there is a short wave that is moving over northern Missouri. By 12z Tuesday that short wave will pass to the northeast creating a ridging pattern over Missouri. This ridging pattern will stick around into Wednesday. At 500-mb vorticity, there is possible circulation, but that circulation will push out of Missouri by 18z Tuesday. At 700-mb vertical velocity there are some strong areas of omega scattered around Missouri, but this will start to clear by 15z-18z Tuesday. Now moving down to 850-mb heights and winds there is still a low level ridging pattern that is affecting Missouri. Winds will start to get stronger and shift more to the south throughout the day. 925-mb relative humidity, humidity looks to stay with us throughout the day. By 15z we could possibly see some clearing of clouds because of the lack of vertical motion, this could give us the potential to clear as the day progresses and finish off with some sun for Tuesday. 


Tuesday Night into Wednesday, there is a low pressure system that will start to push south east into south of Nebraska and north of Kansas. This will be affecting mid-Missouri's weather going into Wednesday. There will be a larger presence of vertical motion helping drive up the moisture into the atmosphere giving us mostly cloudy skies for the day. With warm air advection this will help Moisture to increase up to around 88% relative humidity. If there is enough lift and moisture that could give Missouri the chance to see some possible scattered showers, but the possibility for rain won’t really increase until Wednesday night. 


By Wednesday night into Thursday, there could be a slight potential of severe weather that future forecasters need to keep an eye out. As for now the bulk of precipitation might just come with a few rumbles of thunder. There is not much correlation on totals when it comes to how much CAPE, yet the majority of the models are indicating enough to have some thunderstorms. MUCAPE values have gone up since the last forecaster has looked at them, the majority of the models are falling in between 400 and 700 J/Kg. Again this is something that just needs to be monitored by future foresters. At 250-mb heights and winds, into Wednesday night a jet streak will start to move into Missouri, this will be putting central and  northern Missouri into the left exit region giving possible divergence. Vertical velocity also starts to move out at 18z on Thursday. Wednesday night into Thursday morning humidity will increase and then start to exist by Thursday at 18z, which can help us indicate the frontal passage. 


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