Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Missouri will have a Statewide Tornado drill today, Tuesday March 02nd at 10:00am CST

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night - Clear. 

Low: 30-34

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 60-64  

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 30-34

Thursday - Sunny with increasing clouds throughout the day. High: 58-62

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Discussion: 

Things are going to stay rather calm for this forecast period. There will be a high pressure system evolving from the south playing into mid-Missouri’s weather for the next few days. As that high pressure evolves winds will be gradually switching from the southwest to the south. That will help warm up our temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday temperatures will start backing off as a low pressure system will be making its way into the area. So an increase in clouds on Thursday can be expected as that low pressure system continues to push east bringing in moisture. 

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Forecaster: Pauley

Issued: 9:30 AM CST 02 March 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

For this forecast a general model blend of the SHREF, 12Z NAM, and 06z GFS was used in performing the diagnostics.These models were correlating with current temperatures and the presents of the current ridge sitting over the central great plains. These models are also capturing/correlating with the current low pressure system in the North Pacific Ocean. 

Today into Wednesday, there will be a warming trend for mid-Missouri. Currently a shortwave low is sitting over southern Missouri and will continue to push east throughout the day. That will help a ridging pattern form over the central great plains and the midwest. As that ridging pattern moves in, it will help switch winds from the southwest to the south and bring in warm air advection. For today going into Wednesday there is a lack of lift and humidity, so clear skies will continue into the overnight hours and Wednesday. These clear skies will help drive temperatures up into the upper 50’s into the lower 60’s. 

Thursday, will be a different story as a trough will start to push its way into the central great plains. This will help moisture and lift to increase throughout Thursday. So as clouds increase that will prevent temperatures from getting into the middle 60’s. This is something that future forecasters will have to keep an eye on as there could be a small chance for rain, but so far any moisture and vertical lift will be only great enough to give us clouds.