Wednesday - Overcast. High: 54-58

 

Wednesday Night - Overcast. Rain possible after midnight. Low: 42-46

 

Thursday- Cloudy. On and off rain showers and thunderstorms. High: 52-56

Thursday Night- Clouds begin to thin. Rain clears out. Low: 38-42

 

 

Friday - Partly sunny. High: 60-64 

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Discussion: 

We're waking up to a gloomy morning, but things will stay dry throughout the day. You may want a jacket with temperatures being slightly cooler, but you can hold off on the umbrella until tonight. Rain chances will enter the area after midnight and be with us through most of the day on Thursday. We could hear a few rumbles of thunder mix in with the rain showers Thursday afternoon, but we're not concerned with any severe weather in the area. Winds will shift throughout the day Thursday to become northwesterly. This, combined with clearing clouds overnight Thursday will allow for low temperatures to fall much lower than we've been seeing. Friday morning, as low pressure pushes off to our east, we'll wake up to some sunshine mixing in with leftover clouds. Overall, Friday will begin a drier pattern as we head toward the weekend.

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Forecaster: Baker and Est

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 24 March 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was assembled using the 06Z run of the GFS with aid of GFS soundings to determine storm potential and rain likelihood. The GFS was chosen due to how well it has handled both initial conditions and the timing and intensity of incoming rain events. 

 

The 250-mb plot winds shows a jet max to our southeast throughout the day on Wednesday. By 09Z Thursday, a jet max begins to move through Missouri until 09Z Friday. Friday shows no significant jet max near the forecast area.

 

500-mb vorticity outputs for Wednesday are lackluster, but we begin to see vorticity enter the region overnight Wednesday into Thursday around 06Z Thursday. Vorticity increases throughout the day Thursday with the highest amounts of vorticity being located over the forecast area at 21Z Thursday. As vorticity increases, this will aid in the possibility for thunderstorm development for the afternoon Thursday. Vorticity decreases throughout Thursday evening, and there is no expected vorticity to impact the area for Friday at this level.

 

The 700-mb plot shows a lack of RH until 06Z Thursday where RH levels increase dramatically. High RH levels will stick with us until 09Z Friday when things become drier. Having moisture at this level coupled with lower level saturation seen on soundings suggests a rain event throughout Thursday. Winds at this level are westerly throughout Wednesday, but at 06Z Thursday, as the low passes by Missouri, winds will shift to become more southerly. This will allow for moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, ultimately increasing rain chances for Thursday.

 

At the 850-mb level, the low pressure system that impacted our weather yesterday continues to push off to the northeast. Winds at this level start out as westerly Wednesday, but they are expected to shift to become southerly at 06Z Thursday. Southerly winds will be with us throughout the day Thursday, but they will shift to become westerly again by 03Z Friday.

 

The surface level shows several differences between each day of the forecast period. As the surface low pressure system in the southwestern portion of Texas continues sliding northeast, it will cause wind direction changes as it passes through the Missouri boot heel. Wednesday, winds will be WSW at 10mph, but they will become northerly for Thursday. This will allow temperatures to remain cool at the surface for Thursday. Friday, we will continue to see winds out of the north, but sunshine should aid in warming temperatures. 

All guidance for the forecast period suggests a rain event from 06Z Thursday through 00Z Friday. We could see a brief break in the rain from 09Z Thursday until 15Z, but the second round of rain could have some thunder embedding within it. Soundings for this time period suggest CAPE values increasing for the afternoon Thursday, but with mostly positive Omega values, hail is not a concern. In total, we could see near 1.0" of accumulating rainfall by Friday morning.

Future forecasters should watch the storm potential for Thursday afternoon.