Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy, possible peaks of sunshine later in the day. High: 52-56
Tuesday Night - Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday - Cloudy with rain and possible thunderstorms. High: 54-58
Wednesday Night - Cloudy with rain and possible thunderstorms. Low: 38-42
Thursday - Overcast with rain. High: 42-46
Rather calm conditions today, a low pressure system in Illinois will be shifting east taking it's moisture with it. Mid-Missouri could see some clearing today with possible peaks of sun as the humidity lightens up. Today will be the day to do any outdoor activities, even though it will be mostly cloudy we are not expected to see any precipitation. For the rest of the forecasting period that will be a different story. There will be the possibility for rain for the next couple of days as another low pressure system starts to make its way into mid-Missouri. A low pressure system that is currently located in Colorado will be moving south east into Texas. Once it moves into Texas it will start to drive up moisture to the north giving us increasing clouds tonight. This low pressure system will then start moving up into Missouri bringing rain with it. Some of these storms may be strong Wednesday into Wednesday night, so make sure to stay weather aware. Heading into Thursday, the rain will start to move out as the low pressure system makes its way through Missouri. This will leave Thursday evening with mostly cloudy skies and drier conditions.
====================================================
A general model blend was taken into consideration for this forecast. Many of the models are handling the low pressure system in Illinois and how it moves out differently. The 06z GFS has a warming trend for today, while the 06z NAM is trying to keep central Missouri into the 40’s all day. When looking at the 12z HRRR the model finds a compromise in temperatures between the 06z GFS and 06z NAM.
Temperatures today are going to depend on how quickly the moisture moves out of the area. At 250-mb mid-Missouri starts to fall into a ridging pattern as a low pressure system in Colorado starts to push south east. This will help create some warm air advection with winds coming out of the south east. Closer to the surface Missouri is split with it's wind profile, when looking at the 06z GFS above I-70 winds are coming from the east. Below and at I-70 winds are coming from the north. THe 06z NAM is wanting to push the easterly winds farther south into Missouri creating cooler temperatures for central Missouri. With southerly winds aloft this will support rising temperatures that the 12z HRRR and 06z GFS are producing for today.
Headed into tonight and tomorrow a low pressure system will start to move towards Missouri from Texas. Vertical motion will start to increase at 06z Wednesday, Humidity will start to follow along and come into the area at 15z Wednesday. Wednesday evening mid-Missouri will see the possibility for some strong thunderstorms. MUCAPE values ranging from 500-700. There is a low possibility for severe thunderstorms, yet it can not be ruled out. For the majority of these storms
Wednesday night into Thursday, the low pressure system is going to go right over Missouri. Wednesday night there is still a chance for strong thunderstorms that will start to taper off as the low pressure system starts to move through Missouri. Thursday, the bulk of vertical motion will move out by 09z. By this time the center of the low pressure system will be between east Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The bulk of the humidity associated with this low pressure system will stick around throughout the day on Thursday.
No comments:
Post a Comment