Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
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Discussion:
Mother Nature is taking it easy on mid-Missouri this week with pleasant spring-like conditions continuing due to the area of high pressure that we are sitting under. With ample sunshine headed our way, temperatures will be unseasonably warm for the remainder of the week. The nearest low pressure system that could bring us changes to our weather is currently near the Colorado/Kansas border. By Friday, this low pressure system could bring us some cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures. Luckily, it appears that we'll stay dry as this system moves through as moisture levels are not sufficient to support rainfall.
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Forecaster: Bongard, Baker, Est
Issued: 10 AM CST 03 March 2021
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):
The 06Z GFS model was used for this forecast due to its accurate initial conditions of where the low on the Colorado/Kansas border is currently located. GFS soundings were also used to determine rain probabilities for later in the forecast. These rain possibilities coming from the low pressure system to our west is our focus for the day as this system will be the first change to our weather pattern of the week.
Zonal flow is dominating aloft for the start of the forecast period. This horizontal flow will allow for sunshine and calm winds throughout the forecast area. Zonal flow will start to become more meridional as a low pressure system pushes toward Missouri by 15Z on Friday. Until Friday, all levels showed zonal flow and no circulation. From here on out, only Friday's conditions will be broken down by levels.
At the 500-mb level at 09Z Friday, circulation enters the mid-Missouri region providing lift for cloud development. The 700-mb level shows moisture transport into the area by 15Z Friday as that low pressure system pushes into the area at the same time. Maps from 850-mb move the low pressure system over Texas at 15Z Friday. At the surface level for Friday, winds will shift from westerly to easterly as the low pressure system approaches.
Easterly winds on the front end of this low will not allow for moisture transport to provide measurable precipitation. While RH values throughout the levels suggest some moisture present in the atmosphere, soundings support the idea that there is no saturation from 500-mb down to the surface that would allow for measurable rain. These factors lead us to believe that cloud cover and cooler conditions will be our main concern for the day.
Future forecasters should watch the movement of this low pressure system as it tracks toward mid-Missouri.
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