Thursday, March 11, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Flood watch in effect from March 11, 6:00PM CST until March 13, 6:00PM CST


Thursday -
 Cloudy. High: 54-58



Thursday Night -
Cloudy, rain chances increase
Low: 42-46




Friday - Cloudy, widespread rain after 11am. High: 50-54




Friday Night - Cloudy, widespread rain continues. Low: 42-46




Saturday - Cloudy, on and off rain throughout the day. High: 50-54


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Discussion: 

A steady pattern of rain will be the main story for this forecast period. Temperatures have already topped out for a high today as a cold front made its way through the area last night. There will be a break in the rain as mid-Missouri hangs out North of the cold front. For tomorrow a low pressure system that is currently in northern Texas will start to push north. This is going to help the cold front that is sitting south of us turn into a stationary front. Winds will shift and bring us southerly winds which will help bring in a bulk of moisture. As this cold front turns into a stationary front this will be the cause for temperatures to not fluctuate and stay in the middle 50's for highs, as well as bring in continuous rain for the next few days. For this forecast period mid-Missouri will see around 1-2inches of rain total. This has the potential to cause flooding since the ground is saturated.

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Forecaster: Gasch, Pauley
Issued: 11:00 AM CST 11 March 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):


For this forecast period the 06z GFS was primarily used because it handled the placement of the front as well as the low pressure system over the northerns Plains states.  The main focus in our weather over the next few days will be a steady rain that should begin on Friday around noontime and continue through the rest of the day.


On Thursday and for the rest of the week, our weather will be greatly impacted by a Southwesterly flow in the 250-mb level.  The ridge at the 250-mb level will continue to bring warm air into our area even after the passage of the front that occurred overnight.  There will be periods with limited, but non-zero, amounts of divergence at that level.  This pattern is largely zonal.  Friday will see higher levels of divergence corresponding to the rain expected over the course of Friday and into Saturday.  These high levels of divergence will peak in the very early hours of Saturday morning around 09Z.


The 500-mb level will also maintain a largely southwesterly, zonal flow.  Periods of limited vorticity on Thursday will contribute to our rainy conditions during the day.  Overnight on Thursday, we will have similar conditions at the 500-mb level as we did throughout the day.  However, on Friday, vorticity will max in the late afternoon corresponding with our opportunity for highest rainfall rates.  These values will remain high throughout Saturday.


At the 700-mb level, the focus is on continuous saturation and persistent vertical motion.  These conditions will keep rainy and overcast skies in our area through Saturday.  Vertical motions will reach their highest values on Friday in conjunction with the higher rates of rainfall that we will see Friday evening.  However, the air will remain saturated after the rain tapers off on Saturday.


The 850-mb level will have very similar conditions as the 700-mb level. Over the course on Thursday, we will see the winds at this level subside a bit as the Low Pressure system that is affecting the northern Midwest move out of the region.  On Friday, we will continue to see vertical motions dwell in our area contributing to the overcast skies.  Conditions will continue into Saturday as we see our winds veer to a Southerly direction in advance of a Low Pressure system that will move over Missouri late in the weekend.  The southerly winds will support strong moisture advection out of the Gulf of Mexico, enhancing our humidity levels.  


At the surface, we will see fairly calm winds and rather mild temperatures over the end of the week and into the weekend.   Rainy skies will persist over the course of the forecast period with amounts of precipitation remaining possible through Saturday.  Throughout the day on Thursday, we should see up to 0.25.”  Friday will have our biggest chance for rain as we could see up to 1.5,” and another 0.25” could be possible on Saturday.  Totaling out the forecast period with 1-2” of rain possible. Additional rain in combination with highly saturated soils will mean that flooding could be an issue for low lying areas.


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