Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday- Snow switching to rain; High: 38 - 42    

Thursday Night- Rain ending around midnight; Low 24 - 28

 

Friday - Sunny; High: 48 - 52

 

Friday Night- Clear; Low: 26 - 30

 

 

Saturday- Sunny; High: 58-62

 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

 

The rain that has had significant impacts on Central Missouri should finally begin to move out of the 

area today. Expect a rain/snow mix until around 2 PM when it will transition to rain. We should

continue to see rainy conditions until midnight when the precipitation will move to our south and

east. Altogether, we should see 0.5-1.0" of total precipitation today; contributing to already soggy

soils. Friday will bring drier skies and warmer temps as we come under the influence of a high 

pressure system to our northeast. Saturday will remain pleasant as the high pressure continues

to influence our weather for the near future.

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Forecaster: Ede, Gasch, Pauley

Issued: 10 AM CDT March 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast is based on information from the 12z NAM40 model as the NAM was better at forecasting the strength and position of the low pressure system. SREF and GEFS was used for temperatures and precipitation amounts. The focus of the forecast is the exiting low pressure system and the entrance of the high pressure for the weekend. 

 

At 250 mb, the flow over Missouri is northwesterly due to the influence of an upper level flow. This is associated with some divergence at this level, enhancing precipitation overhead. By about 00z tonight, the upper level low will be enveloped by the longwave ridge pattern over the CONUS. Friday morning, Missouri is downstream of the ridge axis, which will provide strong northwest flow for the region. Additionally, the upper level divergence is replaced with convergence. Then, the ridge becomes situated squarely over Missouri by noon on Saturday.

 

At 500 mb, the low will persist for longer than it does aloft, but a shortwave ridge develops that serves to push the low along and out of the region. For today, strong negative vorticity advection exists as the low moves off to the east and the upper level flow is northwesterly. The flow regime will remain constant as the ridge begins to take hold of the region Friday and into Saturday.

 

Down to 700 mb, the low persists much longer than it does aloft. Currently, the flow over Missouri is from the north. Vertical motions are strong and will continue to enhance the chances for precipitation throughout the day today. But, as the low moves further to the east, flow begins to shift to the northeast, which will force moisture to move off. By Friday morning, the moisture at this level finally moves south as the low continues to move east. The high will have begun to exert its influence by this time and will continue to do so well into the weekend.

 

 At the surface, today is going to be a cool and wet day with the potential for some snow mixed into the rain. No snow accumulation is expected, but the rain amounts will be in the 0.5 inch to 1 inch range. Friday is going to dawn much cooler than we have been seeing as we will be experiencing cold air advection, but will be dry and will warm up throughout the day. Saturday is a similar story and there should be very little cloud cover which will allow for significant drying.