Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Flood watch in effect until March 13, 6:00PM CST

Friday - Cloud increasing throughout the day. Rainfall beginning in late afternoon.   

High: 54-58

Friday Night - Overcast, moderate to heavy rain with risk of thunderstorms.   Low:42-46

Saturday - Overcast, rain continuing throughout the day.   High: 50-54

 

 

Saturday Night - Cloudy, expect a brief pause in rainfall for overnight hours.   Low: 42-46

Sunday - Overcast with high winds. Isolated showers becoming widespread into the evening.   High: 50-54

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Discussion: 

 

Prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected for the majority of this forecasting period, due to this the National Weather Service has issued Boone County under a flood watch until 6PM Saturday. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be ready to take action in case flooding does start to develop. The beginning of this significant expected amount of rainfall will arise late afternoon Friday. Elevated instability carries the threat of thunderstorms along with heavy downpours for tonight. Moderate rain will continue into most of Saturday before a decrease in forcing will create a window for a stoppage in precipitation. Sunday a low-pressure system will begin to push into our area priming the atmosphere for both windy conditions and additional precipitation. When all is said and done, the total precipitation values for this weekend could easily exceed 1.5 inches.

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Forecaster: Hefner, Ozdas, Bongard

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 12 March 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

Mainly the 20km GFS was used for this forecast it presented a better handling of temperatures and the placement of the low pressure system across the western United States. GFS soundings, GEFS plumes were also used. In this forecast period main focuses on the low pressure system.

From Friday morning, the 250-mb chart shows that the divergence occurring over central Missouri, which gives mid-MO upward vertical motion, evacuates the surface pressure in this forecast period. This region will be under the influence of the Low pressure system approaching from the west.

With this Low pressure system, a great amount of circulation will be producing, from 500-mb. The circulation is heading toward to Missouri.

On Friday at noon, the relative humidity will increase over MO, it will be cloudy and rainy this weekend. However, on Saturday night relative humidity will decrease and along with lack of forcing which will give a little bit pause for rain.

Near the surface, at 850-mb, wind is southerly increasing in strengthen with approaching the Low pressure system.

At the surface, the GFS model suggests the development of solenoids over this region, which suggest the baroclinicity to have the low pressure system developing.